Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the associated environment and climate benefits of electrification by comparing the air pollutant and CO2 emissions from the fuel cycle of battery electric commercial vehicles (BECVs) and internal combustion engine commercial vehicles (ICECVs) through a case study in Guangzhou Province. Five types of vehicles (i.e., electric buses, coaches, light-duty trucks, dump trucks, and waste haulers) used in the public service sector were selected for analysis, taking into account six development scenarios based on the prevalent ownership trends of electric vehicles and the energy system optimization process. The results reveal that an increase in commercial vehicle electrification in the public service sector will cause reductions of 19.3 × 103 tons, 0.5 × 103 tons, 9.5 × 103 tons, and 8.5 × 106 tons for NOx, PM2.5, VOCs, and CO2, respectively, from the base 2030 case (CS_II, the electrification rates of buses, coaches, light-duty trucks, dump trucks, and waste haulers will reach 100%, 26.5%, 15.4%, 24.0%, and 33.1%, and their power needs will be met by 24% coal, 18.4% gas, and 13.2% renewable power), but with a slight increase in SO2 emissions. With the further penetration of BECVs into the market, the emission reduction benefits for NOx, PM2.5, VOCs, and CO2 could be even more remarkable. Moreover, the benefit obtained from the optimization of the share of renewable energy is more noticeable for CO2 reduction than for air pollutant reduction. Prioritizing the electrification of light-duty trucks after completing bus electrification could be a potential solution for achieving ozone pollution control and lowering carbon emissions in Guangdong. In addition, these results can provide scientific support for the formulation or adjustment of advanced pollution mitigation and peaking carbon policies in Guangdong, as well as other regions of China.
Highlights
We model an aggressive increment in battery electric commercial vehicles (BECVs) ownership due to the urgent needs of the peaking carbon emissions (OECVPS)
The reductions in the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 in the fuel cycle brought about by commercial vehicle electrification in the public service sector were calculated under six different combination scenarios
Our results indicate that by 2030 the electrification of the five commercial vehicles mentioned here in OECVBS2030 could save 3.5 × 106 tons fossil fuel, with an annual emission reduction of 19.3 × 103 tons NOx, 0.5 × 103 tons PM2.5, 9.5 × 103 tons VOCs, and 8.5 × 106 tons CO2 in CS_II
Summary
Owing to their high fuel consumption and high pollution emissions, commercial vehicles (CVs), including all trucks and passenger vehicles more than nine seats, are one of the major contributors to ambient air pollution and global warming. According to the China Mobile Source Environmental Management Annual Report (2020) [1], diesel trucks accounted for 78% of the NOx emissions and 89.9% of the PM2.5 emissions of the automobile sector in 2019. Considering their high energy efficiency and low emissions, battery electric commercial vehicles (BECVs) have been identified as a possible solution for the energy crisis, for improving air quality, and for tackling global warming in China
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