Synchronizing Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) into the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP): An Assessment

Abstract

Nigeria faces two inversely proportional goals of becoming the 20th developed economy by 2020, while striving to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy. The country is in uncharted waters since the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) and nationally determined contribution (NDC) works at cross-purposes. Hence, the imperative to harmonise these divergent goals. This complexity was investigated based on secondary data review, derived from the 2015 GDP re-base, LEAP scenario and NELCAL2050 calculations of future energy profiles, to integrate these divergent roadmaps. Results showed that NDC did not take into consideration Nigeria's growth projections since 20% unconditional mitigation will not only reduce the carbon intensity by 2020, but cannot drive the ERGP, hence the Vision 20:2020 goal. This was resolved by stimulating understanding of the divergences, synergies, trade-offs and multiplier effects of the two competing policies, such that it integrates socio-economic development into protection of the ecological system.