SWIVI: A climate change-oriented multi-parametric framework to enhance saltwater intrusion vulnerability assessment

Abstract

Saline intrusion is a phenomenon that most frequently affects coastal aquifers, reducing the quality of groundwater used for human consumption. An approach to address this problem is from a vulnerability perspective. Based on the ESCA framework, we propose a vulnerability model that includes internal and external indicators of social, environmental, and hydrogeological components coupled with groundwater modeling data to forecast vulnerability to seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer. The indicators selected were grouped and weighted after a K-means and Principal Components analysis. As a case study, we selected the San José del Cabo aquifer located in the state of Baja California Sur, Mexico, which presents a deficit in its availability and strong pressures resulting from population and industrial growth. The results indicate for the year 2019 conditions of high vulnerability in the coastal zone and in the San José del Cabo stream. By the year 2040, the very high vulnerability areas will extend inland. The model presented made it possible to accurately define the vulnerability due to saline intrusion in two periods, allowing the generation of actions in the short-medium term to limit its advance. The developed framework allowed the determination and prediction of vulnerability due to saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer system impacted by climate change and overexploitation.