Switchpoints are Forks in the Road of Future Developments

Abstract

This study examines switchpoints for the future of the Logistics industry. “Switchpoints” is the term used to denote parameters that will literally set the direction of future developments. Unlike trends, switchpoints do not evolve continuously: At certain points in time, they veer off sporadically in one direction or the other. In the switchpoint mindset, the marked divergence of informed opinions is indicative of the fact that this is a topic to watch out for. Instead of trying to establish convergence through repeated discussions, we document the different perspectives and focus on exposing the crucial factors to watch out for. Many traditional scenario studies fix a future point in time and specify the different potential states that topics may have reached by then. The switchpoint concept, however, focuses on identifying critical topics, and then derives the relevant time window for each topic individually, i.e. the time window that is expected to witness decisive developments in its ongoing trajectory.