Swimming with the Whales: Inflection Points in Mongolia’s ‘Third Neighbour’ Foreign Policy

Abstract

ABSTRACT When it became a democracy in the early 1990s, Mongolia began to embrace a multi-pillared foreign policy known as the ‘third neighbour’ policy, whereby it regarded the United States and other democracies as its ‘third neighbour’ that balances the influence of its powerful immediate neighbours, Russia and China. Thereafter, four major inflection points have emerged in the development process of the ‘third neighbour’ policy, all in response to changes in Mongolia’s external environment, particularly as it relates to China and Russia. The first inflection point was Mongolia’s move away from a diplomatic culture centred on Russia to one that is more globalised. The second was Mongolia’s effort to reduce China’s economic influence. The third inflection point was a response to increased China–Russia strategic cooperation after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the fourth began only recently and is still taking shape. We have tentatively identified this fourth phase as one of impermanent neutrality.