Sustained Virological Response Is the Most Effective in Preventing Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Curative Treatment in Hepatitis C Virus-Positive Patients: A Study Using Decision Tree Analysis

Abstract

This study evaluated the factors that affect the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive patients, who had received curative treatment for initial HCC, using decision tree analysis in 111 curative cases. The enrolled patients were divided into three groups by the decision tree analysis as follows: Patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) after curative treatment belonged to Group 1 (n = 33), those who did not achieve SVR and with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels < 11 ng/mL belonged to Group 2 (n = 30), and those who did not achieve SVR and with AFP levels ≥ 11 ng/mL belonged to Group 3 (n = 48). The Kaplan–Meier method revealed that Group 1 had significantly longer recurrence-free survival than Group 2 or 3 (p = 0.004). Moreover, there was no significant difference between patients achieving SVR with direct-acting antivirals and interferon therapy (p = 0.251). Group 3 had significantly poorer recurrence-free survival than Group 2 (p < 0.001). The Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that SVR achievement was the only independent factor associated with low HCC recurrence (p = 0.005). In conclusion, patients who achieved SVR were the least prone to HCC recurrence, whereas those who did not achieve SVR and had AFP levels ≥ 11 ng/mL were the most prone to HCC recurrence.