Sustained Increase in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence Across the South West United Kingdom Over the Last 10 Years.

Abstract

Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (pIBD) incidence has increased over the last 25 years. We aim to report contemporaneous trends across the South West United Kingdom. Data were provided from centers covering the South West United Kingdom (Bristol, Oxford, Cardiff, Exeter, and Southampton), with a total area at-risk population (<18 years of age) of 2 947 534. Cases were retrieved from 2013 to 2022. Incident rates were reported per 100 000 at-risk population, with temporal trends analyzed through correlation. Subgroup analysis was undertaken for age groups (0-6, 6-11, and 12-17 years of age), sex, and disease subtype. Choropleth maps were created for local districts. In total, 2497 pIBD cases were diagnosed between 2013 and 2022, with a mean age of 12.6 years (38.7% female). Diagnosis numbers increased from 187 to 376, with corresponding incidence rates of 6.0 per 100 000 population per year (2013) to 12.4 per 100 000 population per year (2022) (b = 0.918, P < .01). Female rates increased from 5.1 per 100 000 population per year in 2013 to 11.0 per 100 000 population per year in 2022 (b = 0.865, P = .01). Male rates increased from 5.7 per 100 000 population per year to 14.4 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.832, P = .03). Crohn's disease incidence increased from 3.1 per 100 000 population per year to 6.3 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.897, P < .01). Ulcerative colitis increased from 2.3 per 100 000 population per year to 4.3 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.813, P = .04). Inflammatory bowel disease unclassified also increased, from 0.6 per 100 000 population per year to 1.8 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.851, P = .02). Statistically significant increases were seen in those ≥12 to 17 years of age, from 11.2 per 100 000 population per year to 24.6 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.912, P < .01), and the 7- to 11-year-old age group, with incidence rising from 4.4 per 100 000 population per year to 7.6 per 100 000 population per year (b = 0.878, P = .01). There was no statistically significant increase in very early onset inflammatory bowel disease (≤6 years of age) (b = 0.417, P = .231). We demonstrate significant increases in pIBD incidence across a large geographical area including multiple referral centers. Increasing incidence has implications for service provision for services managing pIBD.