Abstract
To study the risk of lupus nephritis flare (LNF) or severe lupus flare (SLF) as a function of B cell count kinetics in lupus nephritis (LN) patients after they achieve at least a partial renal response (PRR) with induction treatment that includes rituximab (RTX) and/or belimumab (BLM). We performed a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 19 patients with severe LN that received a B cell agent (BCA), RTX and/or BLM, as part of an initial treatment regimen for an LN flare and had subsequent CD19+ B cell measurements in peripheral blood. We then characterized the follow-up periods, after B cell depressions occurred and PRR were achieved, by the corresponding trajectories of B cell counts (BCC). Time periods with sustained low BCC were type 1 (T1) episodes, while those with repletion of BCC>100 cells/μL were called type 2 (T2) episodes. Time periods with rapid BCC repletion, defined as >50 cells/μL in ≤6months, were called T2b episodes. Corresponding C3, C4, and anti-dsDNA levels were recorded for each episode. The time from PRR until an event, either a LNF or SLF, or to censoring, either at the end of the study period or the end of available patient follow-up, was assessed for each episode type. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare time to flare between T1 and T2 episodes. There were 26 episodes of B cell depression. Seventeen (65%) were T1 and 9 (35%) were T2. Compared to T1 episodes, T2 episodes were 9.0 times more likely to result in flare over the follow-up period (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.0, 95% CI for HR = 2.2-36.7); this risk was even larger for T2b vs T1 episodes. Median BCC was 14 cells/μL in T1 and 160 cells/μL in T2 episodes. Both C3 and C4 levels significantly increased over the duration of the episode in T1 episodes only. Sustained low BCC was associated with prolonged serologic and clinical response, whereas repletion, and particularly rapid repletion, of B cells after treatment with BCA was associated with subsequent disease flare.
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