Sustainable Transport in the European Union: Exploring the Net-Zero Transition through Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Gaussian Graphical Modeling

Abstract

The sustainability of the transport sector is targeted by various policies adopted by the European Union, and their impact must be constantly monitored in order to maximize the desired objective. This paper, through a two-stage investigation, aims to present a systemic approach of the sustainability dimensions in transport and to introduce an innovative technique to analyze the interdependencies between them. In the first stage, relevant indicators were selected from the Eurostat database for the content of four dimensions: economic, environmental, social and technological. The robustness of the developed dimensions was assessed and validated through a confirmatory factor analysis. In the second stage, a Gaussian graphical model was estimated as a technique integrating graphical and statistical modeling to identify complex structures of linkages between variables (as components of each dimension of sustainability). The structure of the network clearly highlights the dependence of transport on fossil fuel consumption as the main determinant of pollution in the sector (CO2 emissions). In addition, the central role of railways in decarbonizing transport is highlighted, in contrast to the limited, and isolated at one end of the network, role of electric vehicles. The findings support that affordability of this new technology plays an important role in its impact on zero-emission transition. Concentrating on the period 2013–2022, at EU27 level, the results are relevant in the context of decarbonization policies, offering useful insights both for future research and policy makers.