Abstract
Development of sustainable transportation is a process which involves promoting efficient transport systems meeting social expectations, while reducing any sub-optimal or harmful effects on public health, natural environment, economy and urban planning. Therefore, in the case of passenger transport, the most effective measure to achieve sustainable transport development is to maximize the share of public transport. This paper analyses trends in changes of demand for passenger transport in European Union Member States, in Poland and in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, including in urban and non-urban areas. Based on collected data and extensive transport-related research of the authors, including surveys of residents, the most important conditions have been defined which affect passenger transport demand in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, and a forecast has been attempted of the demand in three different scenarios of economic development (optimistic, stable and regressive) for various years. The projected public transport demand has been established on the basis of simulations using a proprietary transport model. Results of these calculations revealed surprising conclusions which indicate unfavourable trends in changes of the analysed demand and insignificant differences in projected transport needs, regardless of the selected economic development option for the country and the province.
Highlights
Respecting the principle of sustainable development in socio-economic development policies of a country involves the need to integrate economic and social objectives with environmental objectives
Continuous growth of road traffic causing increased emissions of both noise and pollution [2] makes a lot of countries, including Poland, stimulate transport development by providing sustainable development conditions
The most unfavourable factor affecting sustainable development of transport in the Partnership Area is the steady growth of the motorisation rate in this area, continuing since the political system changed in Poland
Summary
Respecting the principle of sustainable development in socio-economic development policies of a country involves the need to integrate economic and social objectives with environmental objectives. When pursuing sustainable transport development one should bear in mind that travelling in a private means of transport largely makes journeys independent of various negative external factors, ensures a favourable microclimate inside the vehicle and enables direct connections It is one of the reasons why in Poland there has been a continuous increase in the number of car registrations in recent years, reaching approx. Besides the level of motorisation of a society and traffic conditions on the road network, population density and demography (population, birth rate, migration balance and age structure) have a significant impact on the frequency of public transport travel In both these aspects, Poland comes out less favourably in comparison to the developed countries of the EU [7]. The Partnership Area is located in the north-western part of Poland, and in the central-western part of the Kujawsko-Pomorskie province
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