Sustainable risk analysis of China's overseas investment in iron ore

Abstract

Chinese iron ore is a highly dependent and concentrated mineral that plays an important role in the national economy. However, due to its non-renewability, there are multiple risks associated with sustainable overseas iron ore investment. To effectively analyse overseas iron ore investment risk from the perspective of sustainable development, this paper constructs an indicator system with six dimensions that include environmental constraints and Chinese factors and further innovatively combines a cloud theory model with a Bayesian network to dynamically evaluate the overseas investment risks of China's four major iron ore exporting countries: Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa. The results indicate that the risk of investing in Australian iron ore is low while the risk of investing in the other three countries is moderate. Although the risk levels of these four countries fluctuate differently, they all show a downward trend. The dynamic assessment of overseas iron ore investment risks can facilitate the quick analysis of risk situations and adjust response decisions in the event of emergencies, thereby reducing investment risks.