Abstract
Mediterranean regions are likely to be the most vulnerable areas to wildfires in Europe. In this context, land-use change has promoted land abandonment and the consequent accumulation of biomass (fuel) in (progressively less managed) forests and (non-forest) natural land, causing higher fire density and severity, economic damage, and land degradation. The expansion of Wildland-Urban Interfaces (WUIs) further affects fire density by negatively impacting peri-urban farming and livestock density. Assuming the role of grazing in controlling fuel accumulation in forests and non-forest natural land as an indirect measure of wildfire containment around large Mediterranean cities, our work focuses on the role of nomadic livestock, i.e., sheep and goats—the most abundant and traditional farm species in the area. The present study (i) investigates the relationship between fire frequency/extent and livestock decline at the regional level in Greece, (ii) explores changes over time in regional wildfire regimes, comparing Attica, a particularly vulnerable peri-urban region which includes Athens (the Greek capital city), with the rest of the country, and (iii) quantifies trends over time in livestock characteristics (population structure and dynamics) over a sufficiently long time interval (1961–2017) at the same spatial scale, with the aim to document the progressive reduction of nomadic livestock in peri-urban districts. A comprehensive analysis of statistical data, corroborated with a literature review, outlined the relationship between livestock decline over time and changes in specific wildfire characteristics at the regional scale, evidencing peculiar environmental conditions in Attica. In this region, a rapid decline of nomadic livestock was observed compared to in the rest of Greece, leading to a higher wildfire risk. The results of this study suggest that nomadic livestock contributes to sustainable management of peri-urban land, stimulating grazing that may prevent fuel accumulation in fringe woodlands.
Highlights
A complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors shape wildfires in affected and vulnerable areas [1]
Population density was positively correlated with wildfire density, indicating a specific role of density was positively correlated with wildfire density, indicating a specific role of human human concentration in fire frequency, which is directly associated with a higher risk of small concentration in fire frequency, which is directly associated with a higher risk of small and mediumand medium-small firesThe in Greece
Since the ratio of births to total population was quite stable over time for both sheep and goats, results of our analysis indicate a human-driven, progressive decline of livestock density because of increasing exploitation with no replacement from natural dynamics or immigration
Summary
A complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors shape wildfires in affected and vulnerable areas [1]. The progressive decline of forests in advanced economies has been often linked with crop intensification [3]. While anthropogenic-driven fires have been historically used as a land management system in order to adapt natural settings to agricultural (or residential) use [4,5,6], wildfires combined with human activity have reinforced the development of fire-adapted forest ecosystems [7]. A progressively unbalanced distribution of population along urban-rural gradients, the spatial polarization in intensive and extensive cropping systems, land abandonment and recovery of (mainly unmanaged) forests in marginal districts, and the disappearance of some rural activities (e.g., traditional livestock with sustainable grazing) all altered the landscape-wildfires equilibrium. A significant increase of fire frequency and extent has been observed in recent decades, indicating that the resulting rural contexts have been more prone to wildfires [5]
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