Abstract
Since the middle of the last century post-industrial cities around the world have been losing population and shrinking due to the decline of their structural growth models, showing important socioeconomic transformations. This is a negative phenomenon but one that cities can benefit from. The aim of this work is to verify what type of measures against urban decline would be most suitable if applied to a specific case study. To do this, international cases of shrinking cities where successful measures were already carried out facing decline: (i) are collected, (ii) are classified based on several influencing criteria, and (iii) are grouped under similar alternatives against the decline. Measures and criteria focused on achieving sustainability are emphasized. Alternatives are then prioritised using an Analytic Hierarchy Process designed at several hierarchical levels. The results are discussed based on the construction of sustainable future scenarios according to the optimal alternatives regarding the case study, improving the model validity. The work evidences that environmental and low-cost measures encouraging the economy and increasing the quality of life, regardless of the city size-population range where they were performed, may be the most replicable. Future research lines on the integration of the method together with other decision-support systems and techniques are provided.
Highlights
The Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCiRN)—a worldwide research consortium of scholars and experts from various institutions (30 members from 14 countries) pursuing research on shrinking cities in a global context to advance international understanding about population decrease and urban decline as well as causes, manifestations, and effectiveness of policies and planning initiatives so stave off decline, agreed in 2004 that the term ‘shrinking city’ refers to a global phenomenon by which, since the middle of the last century, several hundred cities and urban areas (> 10,000 inhabitants—in 370 cities with more than 100,000 residents—) have been losing population, while undergoing major economic transformations, evidencing the decline of their structural growth models
European countries since the middle of the 20th century; (g) recovery initiatives based on attracting creative social class according to the Creative Cities project [55]; or (h) central city renewal projects of large Latin American metropolitan areas (e.g., São Paulo, Buenos Aires or Mexico DF) with a view to keeping population in these areas, despite their intrinsic problems, and reaching the global city status [36,39,40], among others
Vacant land left by the earlier production system (Fordism) which demands rehabilitation, land decontamination or landscape measures, is transferred in exploitation to private property which is done in exchange for investing to recover them with new land uses (Post-Fordism)
Summary
The Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCiRN)—a worldwide research consortium of scholars and experts from various institutions (30 members from 14 countries) pursuing research on shrinking cities in a global context to advance international understanding about population decrease and urban decline as well as causes, manifestations, and effectiveness of policies and planning initiatives so stave off decline—, agreed in 2004 that the term ‘shrinking city’ (i.e., declining cities) refers to a global phenomenon by which, since the middle of the last century, several hundred cities and urban areas (> 10,000 inhabitants—in 370 cities with more than 100,000 residents—) have been losing population, while undergoing major economic transformations, evidencing the decline of their structural growth models. Public Health 2019, 16, 3727; doi:10.3390/ijerph16193727 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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