Sustainable Development of European Countries: The Climate Component

Abstract

This article provides a cause-and-effect analysis of the impact of carbon emissions on climate change and on the sustainable development of European countries. Despite the consolidated efforts of the world community, the global amount of greenhouse gas emissions is not decreasing, leading to irreversible climate change. The objective of this paper is to explore Europe’s progress towards climate neutrality in the context of ensuring sustainable development and achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. The article aims to establish an econometric relationship between the amount of carbon emissions and the energy intensity of GDP based on statistical data from European countries, and using the example of Ukraine during a full-scale invasion to demonstrate factors that influence greenhouse-gas- emissions growth despite GDP. A significant aspect of this study is an analysis of data from 2012–2022, which indicates that Europe has reduced CO2 emissions and is successfully moving towards climate neutrality. Key efforts of EU countries in preventing climate change and transitioning to renewable energy sources are reflected in the context of the Green Deal. Based on econometric calculations, the direct relationship between the amount of carbon emissions and energy intensity of GDP in European countries was confirmed with a probability of 0.95. The obtained interdependence allows one to predict the amount of CO2 emissions based on known values of energy intensity of GDP during stable economic development. Special attention was paid to Ukraine and the increase in CO2 emissions due to the war. The authors concluded that the war disrupted the relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions, leading to a 23% increase in emissions in 2022. Overcoming the climate crisis and ensuring sustainable development requires a global decarbonisation strategy. However, effective climate policy is impossible without achieving peace.