Abstract
The article presents a comparative analysis of the sustainable development of eight circumpolar countries: Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Iceland. Sustainability is understood as the interdependent development of five spheres of human activity: economic, industrial, social, demographic, innovative-technological, and ecological. Each sphere is assessed in terms of endogenous variables that are influenced by exogenous factors. The demographic sphere is evaluated by population; the social – by the human development index (HDI); economic-industrial – GDP per capita (PPP); environmental – extent of exposure of the population to particulate matter in the atmosphere having a diameter of 2.5 μm; innovative-technological – by high-tech exports. The novelty lies in the analysis of the sustainable development of the respective countries using ADL-modelling. Five interdependent econometric equations are presented along with a method for calculating coefficients. The concept of economic, social and environmental sustainability coefficients is introduced. Each country’s sustainability index was calculated as the geometric mean index of economic, social and environmental sustainability. The results of a comparison of the circumpolar countries according to the sustainable development index are presented. The model can predict the development of each sphere of the respective country’s life-sustaining functions and determine the predicted values of the country’s sustainable development index, as well as to compare the development of countries on sustainable development and environmental safety.
Highlights
Ensuring sustainable development is one of the most pressing issues facing all countries of the world
Environmental sustainability is the ability of an ecosystem to maintain its structure and functional features when exposed to external and internal factors
The sustainability analysis of the development of circumpolar countries is based on the construction of an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model for each country, comprising a system of five interdependent econometric equations and a subsequent forecast of the development of endogenous indicators
Summary
Ensuring sustainable development is one of the most pressing issues facing all countries of the world. The goal is to ensure economic growth at the same time as protecting the resource base and the environment, taking the interests of future generations into account. This topic is becoming increasingly urgent due to the growth in human impacts on the environment, which entail negative consequences for the biosphere. The model reflects three areas of sustainable development: social, economic and environmental
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