Abstract
BackgroundThe port of Lübeck is one of Germany's most important harbours for goods traffic to and from the Baltic Sea Region. Sedimentation from the River Trave requires regularly maintenance dredging as well as capital dredging operations in order to maintain the operational capability of the port. A range of solutions for sustainable dredged material handling exist and an assessment of these options often proves to be challenging for decision makers. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides decision support by processing different data sets and evaluating suitable options in a rational way. Using the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)-TRI method with a modification of a previously developed computerised model for decision support in dredged material management, this study was performed to test decision support under uncertainty.ResultsThe analysis endorsed that relocation to a dredged discharge pool and capping of an ammunition disposal site are viable options for Lübeck port. On the other hand, the use of dredged material from port expansion and its disposal on land are considered to be of very low sustainability under the given circumstances.ConclusionsThe case study demonstrates capabilities as well as boundaries of computer-aided decision making under the premise of incomplete information. Despite uncertainties, sustainable decision making is possible with appropriate MCDA methodologies although minimum requirements concerning both data quality and data quantity must be fulfilled. Consequently, one possible alternative could not be integrated into the case study due to incomplete information.
Highlights
The port of Lübeck is one of Germany's most important harbours for goods traffic to and from the Baltic Sea Region
In contrast to the other mentioned studies, the applied software and method can applied by stakeholders without direct aid from scientific personnel. This fact is important for many decision makers are yet inexperienced dealing with Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology and may reject its use if it is designed as a pure expert system
It is our perception that MCDA methodologies are likely to become a standard instrument in the framework of sediment management in future
Summary
The port of Lübeck is one of Germany's most important harbours for goods traffic to and from the Baltic Sea Region. Using the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)-TRI method with a modification of a previously developed computerised model for decision support in dredged material management, this study was performed to test decision support under uncertainty. A scenario has been developed which takes place at an early management stage prompting uncertainty due to incomplete information To solve such problems, Lahdelma and Salminen [7] recommend the use of the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) approach repetitively during the decision process when additional and more precise information is gained. Lahdelma and Salminen [7] recommend the use of the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) approach repetitively during the decision process when additional and more precise information is gained This approach avoids the information overflow in later phases allowing less accurate information to be utilised for decision making
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