Sustainable data-driven insights: Statistical analysis and artificial intelligence-driven modelling of aerosol concentrations in Hyderabad district, India

Abstract

Air pollution stands as a pressing issue in contemporary times, leading to the loss of millions of lives and exerting detrimental effects on the economy. The aerosols especially particulate matter, which are dispersions of matter in air medium play an important role in manipulating the climatological variables in an area. The current study was developed in response to the need to study aerosols and particulates on annual levels using 20-year (2002–2021) daily mean Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) product released by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensors, and to generate prediction models for AOD using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for Hyderabad district in India. The results of daily mean analysis revealed a rising trend in the number of days with severe AOD (> 1). Yearly mean AOD distribution showed a percentage increase of 45.31 % from 2002 to 2021. Furthermore, factor analysis was carried out to check for correlations of AOD and PM2.5 with various meteorological and pollutant variables. It was observed that both PM2.5 and AOD had significant weak to moderate (p < 0.05; r < 0.5) correlations with both pollutants and meteorological variables. The hybrid deep learning-based CNN-LSTM was identified as the best-fit model to predict AOD, outperforming MLP – ARIMA and MLP models. CNN – LSTM showed an R2 of 0.70, MAE of 0.08, MSE of 0.02 and RMSE of 0.14.