Sustainable biomass production for energy in China

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the land availability for biomass production, identify and evaluate the biomass production options by yield ha −1 and financial viability, estimate the sustainable biomass production for energy, and estimate the energy potential of biomass production. Two scenarios are considered to estimate the land availability for biomass production by 2010, namely Scenario 1 (S1) and Scenario 2 (S2). S1 assumes that the land use pattern will remain constant until 2010 while S2 considers the surplus land available and also the projected area under plantation in 2010. Two biomass demand scenarios are also considered, namely incremental biomass demand (IBD) scenario and full biomass demand (FBD) scenario. IBD assumes that only the incremental biomass demand (industrial wood, sawn wood and fuelwood) from 1997 to 2010 will be generated through harvests from new plantation using the available land. FBD assumes that all the biomass demand (fuelwood + sawn wood + industrial wood) projected for the year 2010 will be met from new plantation. Under the IBD scenario, the annual biomass production potential for energy would be 210.47 and 182.53 Mt for S1 and S2, respectively. The surplus area for energy would be 39.64 and 32.51 M ha for S1 and S2, respectively. Under the FBD scenario, the land required for biomass demand would be 99.71 M ha which is larger than the feasible surplus land of 90.73 and 83.60 M ha under S1 and S2, respectively. Therefore, the surplus area for energy is negative, that means the biomass supply by plantation will not be met by full biomass demand in 2010 even if all feasible lands would be developed. Electricity generation potential from plantation under S1 and S2 will supply about 8.8% and 7.6% of total electricity demand, respectively. The plantation cost of major species and the biomass production for energy by plantation in 2010 under these scenarios are also calculated. Investment required for biomass production for energy is projected. Barriers and strategies for biomass production for energy are also discussed in this study.