Abstract
A modeling framework was conceptualized for capturing the complexities in resilience and sustainability associated with integration of centralized and decentralized water and energy systems under future demographic, climate, and technology scenarios. This framework integrates survey instruments for characterizing individual preferences (utility functions) related to decentralization of water and energy infrastructure systems. It also includes a spatial agent-based model to develop spatially explicit adoption trajectories and patterns in accordance with utility functions and characteristics of the major metropolitan case study locations as well as a system dynamics model that considers interactions among infrastructure systems, characterizes measures of resilience and sustainability, and feeds these back to the agent-based model. A cross-scale spatial optimization model for understanding and characterizing the possible best case outcomes and for informing the design of policies and incentive/disincentive programs is also included. This framework is able to provide a robust capacity for considering the ways in which future development of energy and water resources can be assessed.
Highlights
During the last decade, a transition in the water and energy supply paradigm is emerging in many places across the nation and the world, which is primarily driven by resource scarcity and environmental concerns
While many tools such as Choice Experiments (CE; an experiment to learn how individuals value various attributes of a system by analyzing individuals’ preferences among a set of hypothetical choices) and agent-based modeling are increasingly applied in the fields of agriculture and renewable energy development, very few applications have been developed to understand decentralized water systems [17,26,27,28]
To address the aforementioned knowledge gaps, we propose a systematic and predictive framework integrating stakeholder CE survey, spatial agent-based modeling, system dynamics modeling, and cross-scale spatial optimization (Figure 1) to provide an enhanced understanding of the resilience and sustainability of future water and energy supplies
Summary
A transition in the water and energy supply paradigm is emerging in many places across the nation and the world, which is primarily driven by resource scarcity and environmental concerns. Decentralized and alternative water and energy systems such as rainwater harvesting systems and solar panels are increasingly being integrated into the existing centralized water and energy supply networks to supplement the current supply. While such integrations could potentially increase the resilience of our water and energy supplies to natural and anthropogenic security threats [1], decentralized systems often lack economies of scale and, could present increased environmental consequences and socioeconomic costs depending on technologies and geographic locations [2]. Decision making for future water and energy supply has to take into account complexity at multiple scales and viable solutions can only be obtained with a systematic understanding of these complexities
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