Sustainability self-determination evaluation based on the possibility ranking method: A case study of cities in ethnic minority autonomous areas of China

Abstract

• Novel evaluation model to determine sustainability in Chinese cities was constructed • Sustainability of cities in ethnic minority areas was inadequate and uneven • Of the 24 cities evaluated, only 17 showed positive growth regarding sustainability • The South performed the best sustainably, and the Southwest was the worst Sustainability is crucial for urban development in ethnic minority autonomous areas to achieve economic, social, and environmental development. This study constructed an 18-indicator system based on three dimensions to evaluate 24 cities in ethnic minority autonomous areas with six national central cities as reference objects. A novel comprehensive evaluation model was proposed, including dynamic weighting method determining indicator weights by the trend of indicator development, aggregation method of indicator data from the perspective of the evaluated objects themselves, and the possibility ranking of the evaluated objects obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the model, we analyzed the comprehensive sustainability performance, sustainability change trends, dimensions’ coordination, and key factors. The evaluation results demonstrated that the sustainability performance of cities in ethnic minority autonomous areas was inadequate and trailed the national central cities from 2011 to 2019. Of 24 cities in ethnic minority autonomous areas, 7 cities showed positive sustainability growth, namely Guyuan, Urumqi, Nanning, Guilin, Qinzhou, Laibin, and Lhasa. The South was sustainably the best, and the Southwest performed worst. Additionally, the economic dimension was the key factor hindering the sustainable development of cities. The results provide guidance for policymakers to devise sustainable development initiatives.