Sustainability of the Grain for Green Program

Abstract

In this chapter, we examine the sustainability of the Grain for Green. The Grain for Green was originally scheduled to end in 2007, but was extended, and the subsidies are now set to end beginning in 2015 for the land that was first set aside, and later for other land. The question is whether the farmers will continue with the Grain for Green-induced land use changes, or will revert back to the pre-Grain for Green land uses once the subsidies end. There are constraints on cutting the trees, in particular a quota system, whereby the farmers need to obtain permission from the Forestry Bureau to fell their trees. Nevertheless, if the income from tree products do not compare favorably to those from cash crops, when the subsidies end there will be considerable pressures on the forest. The hope is that the rural economies have sufficiently transformed (through the Grain for Green and other programs), and that off-farm opportunities abound, so that farmers no longer need to revert their least productive land to pre-Grain for Green land uses. One issue that complicates assessments of sustainability is the fact that most studies were done during the first years after the program was implemented, when the monetary benefits from the economic trees could not yet be fully ascertained. However, some studies did try to estimate future changes in prices, and predict farmers’ adaptation to such changes.