Abstract
The short-run benefit of insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops has been well documented, but its sustainability in the long run has not been well studied. In recent years, sustainability of the economic benefit of Bt crops has been subject to a heated debate. By setting up and analyzing a theoretical model, this study shows that Bt cotton adoption indirectly leads to an increase of pesticide use for secondary pest. This study then develops a simulation model calibrated to cotton production in China. The simulation results show the economic benefit that Bt technology had generated could not be completely offset by the increase of the pesticide use for secondary pests. In addition, the simulation results also show that there is no field evidence of pests developing resistance to Bt toxin owing to the existence of natural refuge crops. In summary, this study shows that the benefit of Bt cotton is not only substantial but also sustainable.
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