Abstract

We examine the impediments to rapid recovery from a supply chain disruption through rapid supply chain growth in capacity. We explore how to minimize the effects of disruptions in supply chains that could be caused by pandemics, wars, supplier down times, absenteeism, distributor bottlenecks, etc. The tools we use include reliability theory, logic, simulation, and other methodologies. Our objective is to better understand supply chain disruptions and to propose solutions to the sustainability problems currently being experienced within supply chains. The authors use models to better comprehend how to avoid supply chain structures that are easily disrupted. Included among the findings are that disruptions cause the loss of production capacity; thus, the ability to rapidly increase production capacity in the same or other parts of the supply chain becomes paramount. Furthermore, structural redundancy can help alleviate the loss of capacity coming from a disruption. One purpose of the models is to foster a basic appreciation for the different lead times and fixed costs associated with capacity expansion of the various supply chain components. There are implications for where within the supply chain additional robustness and capacity are needed.

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