Abstract
In this article, we analyze the socioeconomic effects of energy sustainability challenges raised by oil depletion and climate change at the European and global levels. We assess macroeconomic impacts at different period markers from 2010 to 2100 and under different visions of the future of globalization. Fragmented capital markets affect the pace and direction of change and induce additional economic losses in the long term. Regionalized good markets have a positive effect in the long term because less intense international trade moderates the effects of fossil fuel constraints. A sustainable energy future will require implementing policies and measures that are able to (a) provide correct incentives for long-term investments by resorting to other signals than current market prices, (b) incorporate sectoral measures that act complementarily to pricing scheme measures for sectors confronted with biased agents’ behaviors or strong inertias, and (c) foster globalization patterns that are consistent with energy sustainability objectives. The challenge consists in articulating the objectives and the instruments of these different policy and measures triggering the transition toward a sustainable future.
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