Sustainability assessment of pension systems of new EU member states using data envelopment analysis with sensitivity and cross-efficiency analysis

Abstract

This paper assesses the sustainability of pension systems of New Member States of the European Union that have undergone the transition to a market economy and the establishment of a multi-pillar pension model. Investigating pension sustainability from a slightly different perspective, we apply the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index methodology, whose sustainability sub-index measures indicators that have a significant influence on the likelihood that the current pension system will be able to provide benefits into the future. However, this methodology predefines the weights for each indicator, which can be limiting for countries that have large oscillations between indicators. To obtain a sustainability analysis without predefined weights, we apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate efficiency scores using sustainability indicators as inputs. Furthermore, since DEA generally allows each country to load on their strong indicators as much as possible, allowing thus for self-appraisal, we perform the analysis of the perturbations in the data and examine how these changes affect the overall relative positions of the countries in the set. Also, we explore the cross-efficiency approach to define peer-appraisal as a more objective efficiency score. As a final step, a comparison of all EU Member States provides an overall perspective.