Sustainability as a guideline for strategic planning? The problem of long-term forest management in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

Forest management, which is the main focus of this paper, is facing fundamental paradoxes and dilemmas that cannot be addressed by long-term management strategies or management concepts, even where the intention of these strategies is to follow a sustainability path. On this basis, it is argued that sustainability is not a suitable future-oriented term but rather a term oriented towards the present. The more complex the relationships between the different social subsystems, the more rapid the social change of modern societies, the more confusing the present situation and the more unpredictable the future, the less suitable utopian, long-term strategies and the attitude and strategy of firm decisiveness are to address challenges. Several suggested management strategies and techniques such as incrementalism, adaptive management and scenario-analysis are critically discussed. The intention of these strategies is to cope with uncertainty and ignorance. With regard to their limitations, it can be concluded that strategic decisions in the face of uncertainty have to explicitly consider the reversibility of decisions and the awareness of their shortcomings in relation to various dimensions of risk, uncertainty and ignorance. It is therefore necessary to look for modes of planning that actively address uncertainty in organizing learning opportunities and permanent feedback control.