Abstract
Objective This research aimed to explore the application of a mathematical model based on deep learning in hospital infection control of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia. Methods First, the epidemic data of Beijing, China, were utilized to make a definite susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model fitting to determine the estimated value of the COVID-19 removal intensity β, which was then used to do a determined SIR model and a stochastic SIR model fitting for the hospital. In addition, the reasonable β and γ estimates of the hospital were determined, and the spread of the epidemic in hospital was simulated, to discuss the impact of basal reproductive number changes, isolation, vaccination, and so forth on COVID-19. Results There was a certain gap between the fitting of SIR to the remover and the actual data. The fitting of the number of infections was accurate. The growth rate of the number of infections decreased after measures, such as isolation, were taken. The effect of herd immunity was achieved after the overall immunity reached 70.9%. Conclusion The SIR model based on deep learning and the stochastic SIR fitting model were accurate in judging the development trend of the epidemic, which can provide basis and reference for hospital epidemic infection control.
Highlights
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the current coronaviruses that can infect humans
Estimation of the Basic Regeneration Number. e variation of effective regenerative number and the relationship between basal regenerative number and herd immunity are shown in Figure 7. e effective number of regenerations in the first day was the basic number of regenerations, and the effective number of regenerations decreased as the susceptible person became infected
infected persons (It) was found that the above two models were accurate in predicting the development trend of the epidemic and had a high prospect in hospital epidemic control
Summary
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the current coronaviruses that can infect humans. On December 1, 2019, the first suspected case of COVID-19 was admitted to Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan. E Wuhan Municipal Health Commission started an epidemiological investigation on December 29. On January 8, 2020, experts from the National Health Commission of China announced that the pathogen was a novel coronavirus [1]. Zhong Nanshan, head of the national expert team, said on January 20 that the disease was “human-tohuman infectious” and that 217 new cases had been reported in Wuhan that day. E first cases were reported in Tianjin, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces on January 21, marking the start of a full-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in China. Other countries have reported the emergence of novel coronavirus infections. The epidemic in China has been basically brought under control through continuous efforts. Against the background of global economic integration, the prevention and control
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