Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides at volcanic islands: the Stromboli case study

Federico Di Traglia,Daniela Lagomarsino,Teresa Nolesini,Joan Martí,Nicola Casagli,Stefania Bartolini,Andrea Ciampalini,Erica Artesi

doi:10.1007/s10346-017-0866-z

Federico Di Traglia, Daniela Lagomarsino + Show 6 more

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0866-z

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Journal: Landslides	Publication Date: Aug 1, 2017
Citations: 24	License type: open-access

Affiliation: University of Florence, Geociencias Barcelona

Abstract

Susceptibility of intrusion-related landslides in an active volcano was evaluated coupling the landslide susceptibility estimation by random forest (RF), and the probabilistic volcanic vent opening distribution, as proxy for magma injection, using the QVAST tool. In order to develop and test the method proposed here, the RF/QVAST approach was adopted for Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy) since it experienced moderate to huge instability events, it is geomorphologically prone to instability events, and it is affected by active intense volcanic activity that can produce slope instability. The main destabilizing factors of the volcanic flanks are the slope, the aspect, the terrain roughness, the land cover and the litho-technical features of the outcropping rocks. Estimation of volcanic susceptibility shows that the areas with high probability of new vent opening are located in the north-western unstable volcano flank (Sciara del Fuoco), in the volcano summit and the north-eastern volcano flank coherent with the possible re-activation of the eruptive fissures related to the regional tectonic setting. The areas with higher probability of intrusion-related landslides are located in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco, while the rest of the island show moderate to low probability of intrusion-related landslide occurrence.

Highlights

Volcano instability is defined as the condition for a volcanic edifice to be destabilized to a degree sufficient to increase the likelihood of the structural failure of all or part of the edifice (Voight and Elsworth 1997)
The areas with higher probability of intrusion-related landslides are located in the upper part of the SdF, the same area characterized by the occurrence of mass-wasting during the 1985, 2002–2003, 2007 and 2014 flank eruptions (De Fino et al 1988; Calvari et al 2005, 2010; Carlà et al 2016)
& 179 areas affected by mass-wasting phenomena were identified, mainly located within the SdF and BRina Grande-Le Schicciole^ depressions

Summary

Introduction

Volcano instability is defined as the condition for a volcanic edifice to be destabilized to a degree sufficient to increase the likelihood of the structural failure of all or part of the edifice (Voight and Elsworth 1997). Landslides in volcanic terrains comprise a wide spectrum of phenomena, from shallow debris remobilization (small rock falls, dry or wet debris flows) to large-scale slope deformation, eventually evolving into large lateral collapse of the volcanic edifice with the emplacement of rockslide-debris avalanches of tens to hundreds of km (Siebert 1984; Sosio et al 2012). These events may potentially cause severe damage to human society, directly or through secondary events like tsunamis and lahars (Siebert 1984; Major et al 2000; Bonaccorso et al 2003). Detachment areas are mainly located in the Sciara del Fuoco and in the slopes around the crater terrace

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