Susceptibility assessment method for reservoir landslides considering the effect of reservoir impoundment

Abstract

Reservoir impoundment is the main factor inducing reservoir landslides, it is essential to obtain the dynamic landslide susceptibility by considering hydraulic factors. In this paper, we proposed the use of the original and revised logistic regression models (machine learning methods) to analyze the landslide susceptibility after the second stage of reservoir impoundment. Data of active unstable slopes before the first stage of reservoir impoundment were used to train the models. The results indicated that the two models both performed well with high accuracy. The revised logistic regression model performed better than the original logistic regression model in two aspects. Firstly, TPR and AUC of the revised model is 0.771 and 0.906 which is obviously higher than the original model of 0.743 and 0.896. Secondly, the revised model can predict the unstable slopes after reservoir impoundment which the original model can’t predict. The former could be used to obtain the dynamic landslide susceptibility in reservoir areas after different stages of reservoir impoundment and predict the potential reactivated unstable slopes more precisely due to hydraulic factors.