Survival Rate and Prognostic Factors Among Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: Using the Joint Model

Abstract

Background: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is the most effective of all hematologic malignancies treatments, resulting in a significant improvement in survival rate. Objectives: This study aimed at determining the survival rate and factors affecting the survival in patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, using the joint model. Methods: This study was a retrospective cohort study, used for collecting data from patients with hematopoietic malignancies who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in Taleghani Hospital (Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences), Tehran, Iran during the years 2007 and 2015 and were followed up till 2017. A Bayesian joint model of longitudinal and survival was chosen, using Win Bugs software. Results: A total of 395 patients were enrolled. The median overall survival was 6.3 years (95% CI (5.86, 6.76)). Eighty-one patients had died. The obtained results from this study manifested that age (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: (1.002, 1.04)) and pre-transplantation relapse (HR = 1.64, 95% CI: (1.09, 2.4)) have incremental impact on death after transplantation, while malignancy type (NHL (HR: 0.33, 95%CI: (0.152, 0.73)) and AML (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: (0.29, 0.7)) are also effective in reducing death after transplantation. Similarly, the correlation index between longitudinal and survival models proved to be significant (HR: 0.6, 95% CI: (0.0802, 0.37)). Conclusions: This study showed that age, per-transplantation relapse, and malignancy type are the effective factors in the survival rate. Moreover, the link parameter between longitudinal response (WBC) and the survival indicated that an increase in WBC count leads to a decrease in the death risk.