Survival Predictors Before Preoperative Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Abstract

Radical resection after preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is a standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LAESCC), but its outcome remains unsatisfactory. In order to develop a personalized treatment program for LAES, we herein compared the survival prediction utility of five pre-NAC nutritional, inflammatory, and immune indexes in patients with LAESCC. We evaluated the survival of 203 patients with LAESCC who underwent radical resection after NAC from January 2011 to September 2019 for the following representative pre-NAC nutritional, inflammatory, and immune indices: modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, Prognostic Nutritional Index, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio, serum neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI) were evaluated for their impact on survival. Of the five indices, GNRI was the best predictor of survival as determined by the area under the curve (p<0.05). When patients were divided into three groups according to the nutritional risk assessment of Bouillanne et al. using the pre-NAC GNRI, the 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were significantly stratified (p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, the GNRI independently identified a poor OS group [group 1: hazard ratio (HR)=2.598, p=0.002; group 2: HR=6.257, p<0.001] and a high recurrence risk group (group 1: HR=1.967, p=0.016; group 2: HR=4.467, p<0.001). In patients with LAESCC, GNRI may be the most accurate, reliable, and useful prognostic factor among the five major systemic inflammatory and nutritional indices.