Survival Prediction of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Based on the Prognostic Index and Sparrow Search Algorithm-Support Vector Machine

Abstract

Aim: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is one of the highest incidence and mortality cancers in the world, and recent studies show that the incidence of ESCC is on the rise, and the mortality rate remains high. An effective survival prediction model can assist physicians in treatment decisions and improve the quality of patient survival. Introduction: In this study, ESCC prognostic index and survival prediction model based on blood indicators and TNM staging information are developed, and their effectiveness is analyzed. Methods: Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and COX regression analysis are used to find influencing factors that are significantly associated with patient survival. The binary logistic regression method is utilized to construct a prognostic index (PI) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Based on the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and support vector machine (SVM), a survival prediction model for patients with ESCC is established. Results: Eight factors significantly associated with patient survival are selected by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and COX regression analysis. PI is divided into four stages, and the stages can reasonably reflect the survival condition of diverse patients. Compared with the other four existing models, the sparrow search algorithm-support vector machine (SSA-SVM) proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy. Conclusion: In order to accurately and effectively predict the five-year survival rate of patients with ESCC, a survival prediction model based on Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, COX regression analysis, binary logistic regression and support vector machine is proposed in this paper. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can accurately predict the five-year survival rate of ESCC patients.