Survival of people living with AIDS with or without tuberculosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

Abstract Background To estimate median survival time of AIDS patients, with and without tuberculosis (TB), in a cohort in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to investigate survival predictors. Methods Retrospective cohort study of AIDS patients above 12 years old, registered at the Ministry of Health AIDS surveillance system between 2003-2007, and followed until 2014. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios (HR), with respective 95% confidence intervals (CI = 95%). Results 35,515 patients were included, being 4,581 (12.9%) co-infected with TB. Among the latter, probability of survival 12 years after AIDS diagnosis was 95.2%, 82.9%, and 21.9%, respectively for patients receiving at least one third line ARV (HAART2), receiving triple therapy (HAART1) and the last one not on ARV. In the same period, the probability of survival for patients without TB, in the same order as for the therapeutic regimens, was 95.2%, 90.5%, and 40.9%, respectively. The main factors associated with survival, adjusted for the year of diagnosis, were: Living in the city of Sao Paulo (HR = 1,16;IC95% 1,01-1,32), living away from the capital city (HR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.25-1.62); or on the coast (HR = 1.49; 95%CI 1.21-1.82); having TB (HR = 1.70; 95%CI 1.49-1.87); above 49 years old (HR = 1.35; 95%CI 1.18-1.54); black (HR = 1.27; 95%CI 1.12-1.45); IV drug use (HR = 1.73; 95%CI 1.49-2.02); CD4+ below 200 cell/mm³ at AIDS diagnosis (HR = 2.31; 95%CI 1.97-2.72); viral load above 500 copies at AIDS diagnosis (HR = 1.99; 95%CI 1.72-2.30); HAART1 scheme (HR = 1.94; 95%CI 1.47-2.55); no ARV (HR = 8.22; 95%CI 2.95-22.87). Conclusions A large proportion of patients did not receive ARVs or were late diagnosed with AIDS, especially those with TB, whose survival was shorter. Survival is heterogeneous in the state, being lower in regions with higher TB rates. The results point to the need for specific strategies for patients with TB-HIV co-infection. Key messages Tuberculosis is the main cause of death among HIV-infected people, being responsible for one third of deaths in this group and causing a great impact on the survival of this population. The Brazilian policy of universal access to ARV and treatment for TB has increased the survival of AIDS-TB from 22% to 95% and in patients without TB from 50% to 95% up to 12 years after diagnosis.