Abstract
Introduction: A prediction model for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of metastatic colon cancer (mCC) patients was developed by analyzing important risk factors for the prognosis of mCC patients based on the SEER database. Method: The characteristic of 10,946 patients diagnosed with mCC between 2010 and 2015 was obtained from the SEER database. The population was randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate cox for independent predictors of mCC prognosis were performed, and nomogram was constructed. The accuracy of the model was verified by calibration curves, ROC curves, and C-index, and the clinical utility of the model was analyzed using decision analysis curves. Result: Age, primary site, grade, surgery, and other eight factors were significantly associated with the prognosis of mCC patients, and these predictors were included in the construction of the nomogram. The C-index was 0.731 (95% CI 0.725–0.737) and 0.736 (95% CI 0.726–0.746) for the training cohort and the validation set, respectively. The results of the ROC curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) exceeded 0.7 for both the training cohort and the validation set at 1, 3, and 5 years. Conclusion: The constructed prediction model had an excellent predictive accuracy, which will help clinical decision-making of mCC patients after surgery and individualized treatment.
Highlights
A prediction model for the 1, 3, and 5-year survival rates of metastatic colon cancer patients was developed by analyzing important risk factors for the prognosis of mCC patients based on the SEER database
A total of 10,946 patients with mCC were obtained from the SEER database according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. 7,662 of them were divided into the training cohort, 3,284 were in the validation group
Combining the results of Decision curve analysis (DCA) curve, concordance index (C index), ROC curve and calibration curve, we found that the prediction model constructed based on the above-mentioned factors had significant predictive value for overall survival (OS) of mCC patients with high precision and clinical applicability
Summary
A prediction model for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of metastatic colon cancer (mCC) patients was developed by analyzing important risk factors for the prognosis of mCC patients based on the SEER database. Method: The characteristic of 10,946 patients diagnosed with mCC between 2010 and 2015 was obtained from the SEER database. The population was randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate cox for independent predictors of mCC prognosis were performed, and nomogram was constructed. The accuracy of the model was verified by calibration curves, ROC curves, and C-index, and the clinical utility of the model was analyzed using decision analysis curves
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
