Survival and longevity among male Australian elite athletes: A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

To quantify and compare survival and longevity in three populations of male Australian elite athletes, relative to sex- and age-matched referents from the general population. Retrospective cohort study. This study comprised a census of three populations of male Australian elite athletes (i.e. N = 10,502 Australian Football League players, N = 803 national team rugby union players, and N = 1527 Olympic athletes) who debuted from 1-JAN-1921 to 31-DEC-2023. Nonparametric relative survival analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier estimator to generate survival curves, the Pohar Perme method and a log-rank type test to estimate and compare net survival, and the life years difference measure to estimate longevity gains or losses. Olympic athletes had a continuous gain in net survival post-debut, with an average life years difference of 3.40 (95 % confidence interval 2.30 to 4.49) years at the maximum follow-up time. Australian football and rugby union players initially had modest gains in net survival post-debut, followed by a gradual decline in net survival, with average life years differences of 0.31 (95 % confidence interval -0.03 to 0.65) and -0.67 (95 % confidence interval -1.87 to 0.53) years at the maximum follow-up time, respectively. Net survival was significantly different across the three cohorts (test statistic 21.8; degrees of freedom = 2; p < 0.001). Expected survival benefits were offset in elite male Australian football and rugby union players. Further research examining cause-specific mortality is warranted to elucidate the underlying reasons for the observed lack of expected survival benefit in Australian football and rugby union players.