Survival analysis of supply chain financial risk

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply survival analysis, using Cox proportional hazards regression (CPHR), to the problem of predicting if and when supply chain (SC) customers or suppliers might file a petition for bankruptcy so that proactive steps may be taken to avoid a SC disruption. Design/methodology/approach CPHR is first compared to multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logistic regression (LR) to assess its suitability and accuracy to SC applications using three years of financial quarterly data for 69 non-bankrupt and 74 bankrupt organizations. A k-means clustering approach is then applied to the survival curves of all 143 organizations to explore heuristics for predicting the timing of bankruptcy petitions. Findings CPHR makes bankruptcy predictions at least as accurately as MDA and LR. The survival function also provides valuable information on when bankruptcy might occur. This information allows SC members to be prioritized into three groups: financially healthy companies of no immediate risk, companies with imminent risk of bankruptcy and companies with intermediate levels of risk that need monitoring. Originality/value The current paper proposes a new analytical approach to scanning and assessing the financial risk of SC members (suppliers or customers). Traditional models are able to predict if but not when a financial failure will occur. Lacking this information, it is impossible for SC managers to prioritize risk mitigation activities. A simple decision rule is developed to guide SC managers in setting these priorities.