Survival after kidney transplantation compared with ongoing dialysis for people over 70 years of age: A matched-pair analysis

Abstract

Kidney transplantation offers improved survival and quality of life compared to dialysis for most recipients; however, benefits for elderly patients (>70 years) remain uncertain. Using the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (2009-2019), elderly transplant recipients were matched to a waitlisted dialysis patient by age, cause of end-stage kidney disease, and dialysis duration (paired controls). We censored dialysis patients at the time of transplant. Survival was compared using stratified Cox regression. Elderly transplant recipients (KTRs) (n = 465) were matched to waitlisted pairs. Transplant group mortality initially exceeded dialysis due to excess infection-related deaths (1.9 transplant versus 0.3 dialysis/100 patient-years, P = .03). Beyond month 9, a progressive survival benefit in favor of transplantation was apparent. Over a median follow-up of 1.7 years, mortality was 38% lower for KTRs (95% confidence interval 0.41-0.94, P = .02), and 5-year survival was 80% KTRs vs 53% dialysis (P < .001). Recipients of living and standard criteria donor kidneys acquired immediate survival advantage compared with dialysis, while recipients of expanded criteria donor's kidneys experienced elevated risk of death for the first 17 months. Compared with remaining on dialysis, elderly KTRs incur an increased risk of early posttransplant mortality but thereafter may anticipate progressively superior survival rates.