Abstract
Designing a marine monitoring program that detects CO2 leaks from subsea geological storage projects is challenging. The high variability of the environment may camouflage the anticipated anisotropic signal from a leak and there are a number of leak scenarios. Marine operations are also costly constraining the availability of measurements. A method based on heterogeneous leak scenarios and anisotropic predictions of chemical footprint under varying current conditions is presented. Through a cost function optimal placement of sensors can be given both for fixed installations and series of measurements during surveys. Ten fixed installations with an optimal layout is better than twenty placed successively at the locations with highest leakage probability. Hence, optimal localizations of installations offers cost reduction without compromising precision of a monitoring program, e.g. quantifying and reduce probabilities of false alarm under control. An optimal cruise plan for surveys, minimizing transit time and operational costs, can be achieved.
Highlights
All geological CO2 storage projects need a surface monitoring program with four main objectives; 1) maximize assurance of storage integrity, 2) assure that a leak will likely be detected, 3) continue to build an accurate baseline to capture trends and natural variability, and 4) to prevent unjustified accusations of adverse effects from the storage project (EU Commission, 2011; Blackford et al, 2015a)
The average method is very conservative in the sense that average concentration must become statistically significant before a leakage is detected
For instance placing 2 fixed installations is better than taking 7 single measurements, and requiring a detection probability of 80% only 12 fixed installations is needed compared to 60 single measurements
Summary
All geological CO2 storage projects need a surface monitoring program with four main objectives; 1) maximize assurance of storage integrity, 2) assure that a leak will likely be detected, 3) continue to build an accurate baseline to capture trends and natural variability, and 4) to prevent unjustified accusations of adverse effects from the storage project (EU Commission, 2011; Blackford et al, 2015a). With proper selection and operational procedures geological CO2 storage projects will be designed not to leak. Geological monitoring of the reservoir, complex and overburden will be the primary monitoring strategy to assure operations according to plans and to detect any adverse events. More diffusive leaks can be caused by CO2 migrating through the overburden reaching the surface over a relatively large area. Leak scenarios will be an intrinsic component in site characterization and lay the ground for risk and impact assessments necessary for obtaining a permit
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