Abstract
This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007 which are contained in the main publications of the IMF, the OECD and the BIS and discuss issues relevant to strengthening their surveillance activities for making appropriate policy recommendations and issuing warnings in order to prevent such crisis in the future. The review finds that the institutions did not recognize the need for monetary tightening in a timely way for either the US or the UK, two epicentres of the global crisis. While some concerns were expressed at early stages regarding financial market policies and developments, generally when risks seemed abstract or remote, warnings were too few, received too little emphasis in key editorial sections likely to attract attention and were rarely followed up. Important issues, notably the weak capital base and lack of resilience of the banking systems in the two countries, were missed almost entirely. In the light of this review, suggestions for improving surveillance are offered, relating to (1) strengthening analytical frameworks; (2) improving the current institutional context in which surveillance takes place; (3) staff and management issues; and (4) dissemination and communication. In addition, the need to re-design international frameworks for surveillance to integrate more fully new “major players” in the global economy and financial systems is briefly discussed. Surveillance internationale : Les lecons de la crise financiere et economique mondiale La presente etude passe en revue les principaux messages et avertissements qui ont paru dans les grandes publications du FMI, de l'OCDE et de la BRI avant le declenchement de la crise financiere et economique mondiale au milieu de 2007, et examine les ameliorations qui pourraient etre apportees sur plusieurs plans aux activites de surveillance de ces trois institutions, afin que leurs recommandations et mises en garde puissent prevenir une nouvelle crise de ce type dans l'avenir. S'agissant de la politique monetaire, il apparait que les institutions en question ne se sont pas rendu compte a temps de la necessite d'un resserrement, aussi bien pour les Etats-Unis que pour le Royaume-Uni, les deux epicentres de la crise mondiale. Des preoccupations se sont fait jour assez tot concernant la regulation et l'evolution des marches financiers, en general lorsque les risques semblaient abstraits ou eloignes, mais les avertissements ont ete rares, ils n'ont pas ete suffisamment mis en relief dans les editoriaux ou ils auraient pu attirer l'attention, et ils n'ont guere ete suivis d'effet. Plusieurs questions importantes, notamment la faiblesse de la base de capital et le manque de resilience des systemes bancaires dans les deux pays consideres, ont ete pratiquement ignorees. A la lumiere de ce bilan, plusieurs ameliorations sont proposees concernant 1) les cadres analytiques de la surveillance ; 2) le contexte institutionnel ; 3) les questions de personnel et d'organisation ; et 4) la diffusion et la communication des informations. En outre, la necessite de revoir les mecanismes internationaux de surveillance afin d'y faire une plus large place aux nouveaux “acteurs majeurs” de l'economie mondiale et des systemes financiers est brievement evoquee.
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