Surging seas, rising sea levels, and sinking communities: The urgent need for climate adaptation in small island states

Abstract

Small islands in the active tropical cyclone basin of the South West Indian Ocean are among the most exposed to climate-induced coastal inundations due to their geographical positions and low elevations above mean sea level. Yet, these associated disproportionate impacts are still largely understudied. A geospatial-based approach is used in the current study to identify highly vulnerable areas likely to be exposed to coastal inundation over the next century in Mauritius, Comoros, and Seychelles. This study reveals that Mauritius experiences the maximum inundation of 54.1 km2 while Seychelles encounters the highest risk to coastal settlements equivalent to 9.92% of the total population under the worst-case scenario of peak surge, maximum sea level rise, and high tide. An assessment of the economic ramifications stemming from storm surges is also presented and the analysis shows that a 100-year return period storm tide event could inflict maximum direct losses attaining 30.9% of Mauritius’, 34.2% of Seychelles’, and 6.9% of Comoros’ Gross Domestic Product. These findings underscore the urgent need for strategic interventions to adapt to the far-reaching impacts of coastal inundations. In response to these challenges, a multifaceted coastal storm management strategy that encompasses technological innovation, social inclusivity measures, adaptation actions, reinforced governance structures, and pivotal legal and economic reforms is put forward. This approach holds promise for replication in other similarly vulnerable regions worldwide, thereby shaping the trajectory of climate adaptation, especially small islands.