Surging progressives in the conservative mood

Abstract

This article examines the conditional effects of income and urbanism on vote choice in an attempt to explain why both the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the progressive Japanese Communist Party (JCP) were successful in the 2014 Japanese Lower House election. Casting doubt on the conventional explanations, it argues that social division along income lines caused a polarization of voting in urban areas, which in turn allowed the two parties to prosper in the election. More specifically, Prime Minister Abe’s monetarist economic policies implemented during an economic downturn influenced the welfare of people differently according to income level, and consequently divided them into voters for the LDP and for the JCP. Using Japan as a case study, this research shows how an economic policy implemented during an economic downturn can create social and political divisions among people, which in turn impacts elections.