Surgical density and its effect on esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric (GC) mortality.

Abstract

16 Background: Surgical resection plays an integral role in the multimodality treatment of patients with EC or GC. The distribution of thoracic and general surgeons at the county level varies widely across the US. The impact of the allocation of these surgeons on cancer outcomes is unclear. Our aims were to 1) examine the effect of surgeon density on EC or GC mortality, 2) compare the relative roles of thoracic and general surgeons on EC and GC outcomes and 3) determine other county characteristics associated with cancer mortality. Methods: Using county-level data from the Area Resources File, U.S. Census and National Cancer Institute, we constructed regression models to explore the effect of thoracic and general surgeon density on EC and GC mortality, respectively. Multivariate analyses controlled for incidence rate, county demographics (population aged 65+, proportion eligible for Medicare, education attainment, metropolitan vs. rural), socioeconomic factors (median household income) and healthcare resources (number of general practitioners, number of hospital beds). Results: In total, 332 and 402 counties were identified for EC and GC, respectively: mean EC/GC incidence = 5.29/6.83; mean EC/GC mortality=4.70/3.92; 91% were metropolitan and 9% were rural; mean thoracic and general surgeon densities were 10 and 63 per 100,000 people, respectively. When compared to counties with no thoracic surgeons, those with at least 1 thoracic surgeon had reduced EC mortality (beta coefficient -0.031). For GC, counties with 1 or more general surgeons also had decreased number of deaths (beta coefficient -0.095) when compared with those without any surgeons. While increasing the density of surgeons beyond 10 only yielded minimal improvements in EC mortality, it resulted in significant further reductions in GC mortality. Other county characteristics, such as increased number of hospital beds and higher median household income, were correlated with improved outcomes. Conclusions: Mortality from GC appears to be more susceptible to the benefits of increased surgeon density. For EC, a strategic policy of allocating health resources and distributing the workforce across counties will be best able to optimize outcomes at the population-level. No significant financial relationships to disclose.