Abstract
BackgroundDecision-making in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas depends on scaling the risk of malignancy with the surgical burden of a pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop a preoperative, disease-specific tool to predict surgical morbidity for IPMNs.MethodsBased on preoperative variables of resected IPMNs at two high-volume institutions, classification tree analysis was applied to derive a predictive model identifying the risk factors for major morbidity (Clavien–Dindo ≥3) and postoperative pancreatic insufficiency.ResultsAmong 524 patients, 289 (55.2%) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), 144 (27.5%) underwent distal pancreatectomy (DP), and 91 (17.4%) underwent total pancreatectomy (TP) for main-duct (18.7%), branch-duct (12.6%), or mixed-type (68.7%) IPMN. For 98 (18.7%) of the patients, major morbidity developed. The classification tree distinguished different probabilities of major complications based on the type of surgery (area under the surve [AUC] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63–0.77). Among the DP patients, the presence of preoperative diabetes identified two risk classes with respective probabilities of 5% and 25% for the development of major morbidity, whereas among the PD/TP patients, three different classes with respective probabilities of 15%, 20%, and 36% were identified according to age and body mass index (BMI). Overall, history of diabetes, age, and cyst size segregated three different risk classes for new-onset/worsening diabetes.ConclusionsIn presumed IPMNs, the disease-specific risk of major morbidity and pancreatic insufficiency can be determined in the preoperative setting and used to personalize the possible surgical indication. Age and overweight status in case of PD/TP and diabetes in case of DP tip the scale toward less aggressive clinical management in the absence of features suggestive for malignancy.
Highlights
Decision-making in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas depends on scaling the risk of malignancy with the surgical burden of a pancreatectomy
The risk of major morbidity and postoperative pancreatic insufficiency for these patients can be preoperatively stratified according to the type of intervention based on the presence of preoperative diabetes, age, body mass index (BMI), and cyst size
The original hypothesis was that surgery for IPMN may be burdened by higher rates of major postoperative morbidity, postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), because obstructive chronic pancreatitis resulting in a firm texture of the pancreas is less frequent than in other pathologies
Summary
Decision-making in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas depends on scaling the risk of malignancy with the surgical burden of a pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop a preoperative, disease-specific tool to predict surgical morbidity for IPMNs. Methods. Based on preoperative variables of resected IPMNs at two high-volume institutions, classification tree analysis was applied to derive a predictive model identifying the risk factors for major morbidity (Clavien–Dindo C3) and postoperative pancreatic insufficiency. Among the DP patients, the presence of preoperative diabetes identified two risk classes with respective probabilities of 5% and 25% for the development of major morbidity, whereas among the PD/TP patients, three different classes with respective probabilities of 15%, 20%, and 36% were identified according to age and body mass index (BMI). In presumed IPMNs, the disease-specific risk of major morbidity and pancreatic insufficiency can be determined in the preoperative setting and used to personalize the possible surgical indication. Age and overweight status in case of PD/TP and diabetes in case of DP tip the scale toward less aggressive clinical management in the absence of features suggestive for malignancy
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