Abstract
Abstract Five models dominate academic analyses of elections for the House of Representatives. They are: (1) the surge and decline cycle of presidential elections and the successive off-year election; (2) the presidential performance model; (3) the retirement model; (4) the campaign spending model; and (5) the candidate quality model. The expected results for the 2022 Congressional election according to the first three models are presented here. Senate elections are not considered. The models differ in their predicted result. The smallest impact on 2022 is associated with the surge and decline cycle; the largest impact is found from incumbent retirements that reflect the prospective short-term forces in the election environment. The average of the three predictions for 2022 finds the Democratic Party losing their majority, giving the Republicans control of the House of Representatives for the 118th Congress.
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