SURG-05. SUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING IDENTIFIES RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH LEPTOMENINGEAL DISEASE AFTER SURGICAL RESECTION OF BRAIN METASTASES

Abstract

Abstract INTRODUCTION Predictors of postoperative leptomeningeal disease (LMD) after resection of brain metastases (BMs) are not well defined. OBJECTIVE This study examined rates and predictors of LMD, including subtypes, in patients who underwent resection of a BM followed by postoperative radiation.Method: A retrospective, single-center study was conducted examining overall LMD, classical LMD (cLMD), and nodular LMD (nLMD) risk. Logistic regression and a Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with LMD. Random forest models were constructed to predict LMD and differentiate cLMD versus nLMD. Accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were calculated to evaluate the models.Result: Of the 217 patients in the cohort, 47 (21.7%) developed postoperative LMD with 19(8.8%) cLMD cases and 28(12.9%) nLMD cases . Six-, 12-, and 24-month LMD-free survival rates were 92.3%, 85.6%, and 71.4%, respectively. Patients with cLMD had worse survival outcomes from LMD diagnosis compared to nLMD (2.4 vs 6.9 mo, Log-rank p=0.02), and treatment of LMD was associated with improved survival for both cLMD and nLMD subtypes. Multivariate Cox hazard analysis identified cerebellar/insular/occipital location (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.73-6.11, p=0.0003), absence of extracranial disease (HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.27-4.88, p=0.008), and ventricle contact (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.5-5.3, p=0.001) to be associated with postoperative LMD. A predictive model using random forest analysis with an AUROC of 0.87 in a test cohort identified tumor location, systemic disease status, and tumor volume as the most important factors associated with LMD. Both regression analysis and random forest analysis identified postoperative systemic therapy exposure as the main factor differentiating cLMD from nLMD development. CONCLUSION Tumor location, absence of extracranial disease at the time of surgery, contact with a ventricle, and increased tumor volume are associated with LMD. Classical LMD is associated with worse prognosis compared to nLMD.