Surface-temperature history during the last 1000 years near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska: applying control theory to the inversion of borehole temperature profiles

Abstract

The temperature-depth profile data by Lachenbruch et al. (1982) in ice-bearing permafrost near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, are analyzed with control theory to retrodict the last 1000-yr history of the surface temperature. For this purpose, an inversion scheme for a nonlinear problem of heat diffusion in permafrost is developed. The following conclusions are made: (1) During the last 1000 years, the surface temperature near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, oscillated with amplitude of 3 ± 1°C. (2) There was a minimum of the temperature in 1853 AD between two maxima at 1623 AD and 1937 AD. (3) A net warming by 4°C occurred from 1853 AD to 1973 AD.