Surface wind forecasts with numerical weather prediction models

Abstract

This describes the method of prediction of surface wind fields by use of numerical models at Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The concept and the system of the numerical weather prediction are shown first, because the numerical weather prediction is now essential to weather and wind field predictions. Numerical models at JMA are also summarized with the emphasis of surface friction schemes.Forecasts of surface winds by the numerical prediction model (JSM) are fairly accurate except for regions of complex terrain. To improve forecasts over such regions, one-level surface wind model is being developed. The model requires a modest computer resources. It will be operated at local forecast centers using their work-stations