Surface water flood risk and management strategies for London: An Agent-Based Model approach

Katie Jenkins,Florence Crick,Jim Hall,Swenja Surminski

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20160722003

Katie Jenkins, Florence Crick + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160722003

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Abstract

Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally.

Highlights

Flooding is the costliest natural disaster worldwide, and the effective management of long-term flood risk is an increasingly critical issue for many governments across the world, especially in light of climate change
Given that annually a larger flood event data set of Jenkins et al, [21], which number of properties are protected by propertylevel protection measures (PLPMs) than sustainable drainage systems (SUDS)
This is properties changes over time, and anxiety and emotions [24]

Summary

Introduction

Flooding is the costliest natural disaster worldwide, and the effective management of long-term flood risk is an increasingly critical issue for many governments across the world, especially in light of climate change. Flooding in urban areas during high intensity rainfall is termed ‘surface water flooding’. This results from heavy rainfall which does not infiltrate the ground but ponds or flows overland before the runoff enters a natural or man-made drainage system or watercourse, or where water cannot enter a system as it is already at full capacity [1]. The Pitt Review [3], conducted to provide lessons and recommendations in the aftermath of the 2007 summer floods, highlighted major gaps in the understanding and management of risks from surface water flooding. Combined with an increasing pattern of urbanisation it has been estimated that damages from surface water flooding could increase by 60-220% over the 50 years [7]

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