Abstract
Border closures associated with COVID-19 constitute a response to an exogenous shock unrelated to migration. In this IMR Dispatch, we argue that the impact of policies initially implemented to halt movement and curb the spread of the disease will nonetheless have medium- and longer term consequences for international migration. Specifically, we argue that these initial border restrictions have set in motion demographic and sociological processes that are likely to culminate in greater support for restricting future migration. Based on demographic evidence, we posit that after extended suppression of migration, OECD countries and Russia will see a migration spike, akin to a “baby boom” for fertility rebounds. Drawing on sociological theory and research, we hypothesize that these spikes in migration will increase anti-immigrant sentiment among native-born residents in destination countries and mobilize political support for reintroducing restrictive migration policies — triggering a feedback loop. In an effort to help facilitate future research and empirical tests of our model, we identify key concepts, processes, and data sources for the analysis of the pandemic’s impact on international migration over time.
Highlights
Border closures associated with COVID-19 constitute a response to an exogenous shock unrelated to migration
In some countries, political leaders who were already opposed to immigration immediately used this crisis as an opportunity to halt asylum seeking, deport refugees (Austen 2020; Kanno-Youngs and Semple 2020; Novak et al 2020), threaten the free movement of indigenous populations (Bostrom 2020), and suspend temporary work visas for both high- and low-skilled migrants (Trump 2020). While these border closures are a response to an external shock unrelated to migration, we argue that the impact of these closures will have medium- and longer term consequences for international migration
Immigrants, due to increasing prejudice and political support for discriminatory and restrictive policies as well as the political parties that advocate for them. These hypotheses, which we advance in the form of a model with a feedback loop, are intended to be tested in future research to understand the consequences of COVID-19 restrictions on international migration
Summary
Borders are closed with few Australia, Canada, Chile, Czechia, exceptions, which may include. Lithuania, New Zealand, residents of country and one Norway, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, immediate neighbor. With Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, several exceptions. Luxembourg, Netherlands, daily commuters, or restrictions Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, and may be limited to particular. Perhaps Mexico limited to one border or to one type of entry (i.e., sea ports only)
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