Abstract

Although there is always an interplay between the dynamics of information diffusion and disease spreading, the empirical research on the systemic coevolution mechanisms connecting these two spreading dynamics is still lacking. Here we investigate the coevolution mechanisms and dynamics between information and disease spreading by utilizing real data and a proposed spreading model on multiplex network. Our empirical analysis finds asymmetrical interactions between the information and disease spreading dynamics. Our results obtained from both the theoretical framework and extensive stochastic numerical simulations suggest that an information outbreak can be triggered in a communication network by its own spreading dynamics or by a disease outbreak on a contact network, but that the disease threshold is not affected by information spreading. Our key finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate that markedly suppresses the disease spreading. We find that the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the real-world spreading processes at the optimal information transmission rate.

Highlights

  • We present here a systematic investigation of the effects of interacting mechanisms on the coevolution processes of information and disease spreading dynamics

  • We have systematically investigated the coevolution dynamics of information and disease spreading on multiplex networks

  • We first discover indications of asymmetrical interactions between the two spreading dynamics by analyzing real data, i.e., the weekly time series of information spreading and disease spreading in the form of influenza-like illness (ILI) evolving simultaneously in the US during an approximate 200-week period from 3 January 2010 to 10 December 2013

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Summary

Introduction

We present here a systematic investigation of the effects of interacting mechanisms on the coevolution processes of information and disease spreading dynamics. We first demonstrate the existence of asymmetrical interactions between the two dynamics by using real-world data from information and disease systems to analyze the coevolution. We propose an asymmetric spreading dynamic model on multiplex networks to mimic the coupled spreading dynamics, which will allow us to understand the coevolution mechanics. Our most important finding is that there is an optimal information transmission rate at which the outbreak size of the disease reaches its minimum value, and the time evolution of the dynamics in the proposed model qualitatively agrees with the dynamics of real-world spreading

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